Post-Tariff Tremors: A Month After the Trucking Market Warning from David Hoffman
Over a month has passed since the March episode of DAT’s IQ Weekly Market Update, filmed live at the Mid-America Trucking Show. In that episode, Dean Croak was joined by David Hoffman, a PLG Consultant, to dissect the freight market’s direction as the industry braced for new tariffs set to take effect on April 2.
With those tariffs implemented and real-world data rolling in, it’s clear that Hoffman’s warnings about volatility weren’t just speculation —they were more like foresight.
A Forecast That Is Now Playing Out
Hoffman’s cautionary words have proven accurate. Since early April, dry van and reefer rates have remained soft, with many shippers pulling back or restructuring procurement strategies. Flatbed rates—which surged 8% YTD by March—have held firmer, supported by pre-tariff inventory builds and seasonal demand, though momentum is starting to level out.
In the episode, Hoffman framed early-year activity as a response to tariff uncertainty: “Shippers are pulling freight forward—not because they want to, but because they have to.”
Strategy Over Reaction: JIT vs. JIC Transparency in the RFP Process
One of the central insights from Hoffman was the critical decision shippers face on inventory strategy—a choice between JIT (Just-in-Time) and JIC (Just-in-Case). As Hoffman emphasizes, “Shippers now more than ever need to determine what inventory strategy they plan to deploy.“
This debate has gained urgency. Companies are now grappling with whether to minimize overhead and operate lean (JIT) or stockpile ahead of risk (JIC). Many leaned toward JIC ahead of the tariffs but are now recalibrating as global sourcing costs rise and warehousing becomes more constrained. Since April 2, this shift has accelerated. Lead times have compressed. Supplier diversification is trending upward. And shippers are turning to data-driven planning to mitigate uncertainty.
Transparency in the RFP Process
Hoffman highlighted a practical but often overlooked tactic: transparency during the RFP process.
“Carriers can plan better when they know where the freight is coming from. It sounds simple—but it’s often overlooked.“
He emphasized that sharing relevant KPIs and location-specific data during contract negotiations builds stronger relationships and ensures operational alignment, which is especially critical in unpredictable rate environments.
What’s Changed and What Hasn’t
DAT’s Ratecast models suggest ongoing softness in dry van pricing, while flatbed demand may stabilize but not accelerate. Lead times have compressed. Supplier networks are diversifying. And agility is no longer optional—it’s expected. Yet, Hoffman’s central message still holds: success comes down to agility and foresight.
“The winners will be those who can make decisions fast—with the right data, partners, and flexibility.“
Final Thought
David Hoffman’s March commentary still resonates powerfully today. As the market adjusts to the reality of tariffs, labor costs, and global friction, the ability to plan for multiple outcomes, rather than predict a single future, separates resilient shippers from reactive ones.
🔗 To listen to the full interview, click here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6h_gK5qfbU&t=14s
