Post-Tariff Tremors: A Month After the Trucking Market Warning from David Hoffman

Over a month has passed since the March episode of DAT’s IQ Weekly Market Update, filmed live at the Mid-America Trucking Show. In that episode, Dean Croak was joined by David Hoffman, a PLG Consultant, to dissect the freight market’s direction as the industry braced for new tariffs set to take effect on April 2.

With those tariffs implemented and real-world data rolling in, it’s clear that Hoffman’s warnings about volatility weren’t just speculation —they were more like foresight.

A Forecast That Is Now Playing Out

Hoffman’s cautionary words have proven accurate. Since early April, dry van and reefer rates have remained soft, with many shippers pulling back or restructuring procurement strategies. Flatbed rates—which surged 8% YTD by March—have held firmer, supported by pre-tariff inventory builds and seasonal demand, though momentum is starting to level out.

In the episode, Hoffman framed early-year activity as a response to tariff uncertainty: “Shippers are pulling freight forward—not because they want to, but because they have to.”

Strategy Over Reaction: JIT vs. JIC Transparency in the RFP Process

One of the central insights from Hoffman was the critical decision shippers face on inventory strategy—a choice between JIT (Just-in-Time) and JIC (Just-in-Case). As Hoffman emphasizes, “Shippers now more than ever need to determine what inventory strategy they plan to deploy.“

This debate has gained urgency. Companies are now grappling with whether to minimize overhead and operate lean (JIT) or stockpile ahead of risk (JIC). Many leaned toward JIC ahead of the tariffs but are now recalibrating as global sourcing costs rise and warehousing becomes more constrained. Since April 2, this shift has accelerated. Lead times have compressed. Supplier diversification is trending upward. And shippers are turning to data-driven planning to mitigate uncertainty.

Transparency in the RFP Process

Hoffman highlighted a practical but often overlooked tactic: transparency during the RFP process.

“Carriers can plan better when they know where the freight is coming from. It sounds simple—but it’s often overlooked.“

He emphasized that sharing relevant KPIs and location-specific data during contract negotiations builds stronger relationships and ensures operational alignment, which is especially critical in unpredictable rate environments.

What’s Changed and What Hasn’t

Final Thought

David Hoffman’s March commentary still resonates powerfully today. As the market adjusts to the reality of tariffs, labor costs, and global friction, the ability to plan for multiple outcomes, rather than predict a single future, separates resilient shippers from reactive ones.

To listen to the full interview, click here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6h_gK5qfbU&t=14s

 

Navigating Global Trade Wars: Restructuring Supply Chains in an Era of Uncertainty

• Global tariffs and trade wars have created significant disruptions across supply chains, erasing the theoretical benefits of distant sourcing.
• Reactive approaches to supply chain disruptions are costly and ineffective; proactive risk mitigation is essential.
• Strategic supply chain restructuring can create stability, predictability, and a foundation for continuous improvement.
• Companies should consider re-shoring or near-shoring while maintaining strategic distant sourcing for specific products.

The Impact of Global Trade Wars

As the global trade war continues to evolve, tariffs and counter-tariffs have created huge ripples across global supply chains and tremendous spikes in purchase costs for many industries. Certain tariff levels have been suddenly ratcheted up, while others have been postponed, and some may even be removed as new trade deals are negotiated. Wherever the roller coaster stops, the chaotic and costly wake that tariffs will leave is just the latest example in a long list of global supply chain disruptions that can completely eradicate the benefits of buying products from distant locations.

“Tariffs are the most recent example of how the theoretical merits of a longer supply chain can be erased overnight.”

The advantages of lower labor rates, lower energy costs, and weaker currencies available in certain countries are undeniable. They can be very attractive when these factors influence a company’s total purchase cost and are relatively stable. However, “stable” has not been an accurate descriptor of the environment that supply chain managers have had to face over the past several years.

The Reality of Global Sourcing

In highly competitive industries, procurement teams are under constant pressure to find opportunities to reduce costs, and inevitably, they look well beyond their borders to low-cost countries to generate potential cost savings. However, the theoretical merits of these lengthy supply chains are often calculated based on the assumption that the whole system working absolutely perfectly – no fluctuations in demand, no spikes in transportation or labor costs, no dockworker strikes, no undetected quality issues lurking in long supply pipelines, no natural disasters, stable currency exchange rates, and so on. Yet every one of these disruptions has occurred all too frequently in recent times. Add “sudden changes in trade policy” to the list.

TARIFF IMPACT STATISTICS

·    According to the Budget Lab at Yale, recent tariffs can increase import costs by 10-25% overnight [The Budget Lab at Yale, 2025]

·      Supply chain disruptions have led manufacturers to experience order cancellations and pauses in freight from affected regions [CNBC Supply Chain Survey, 2025]

·      The Richmond Federal Reserve reports that China’s share of U.S. imports has decreased from 22.0% in 2017 to 13.8% in 2024 due to businesses shifting supply chains away from China [Richmond Fed, 2025]

The supply disturbances of the past several years have come swiftly and without sufficient warning compared to the typical lead times to implementing alternative sourcing plans. A reactive approach leaves manufacturers scrambling to maintain a continuous supply and recover losses. Quick fixes are often expensive, and attempting to recoup these costs in the form of higher customer prices can often lead to reduced market share. The only practical solution is to mitigate risks before they become a reality.

Using Tariffs as a Catalyst for Change

While tariff impacts are painful, they can be used in a positive way as further justification to restructure a company’s supply chain. The benefits of stepping off the supply roller coaster are even greater as tariffs threaten manufacturers. Many company leaders are more than ready to return to the days when uninterrupted supply and a stable cost structure were the norm, and procurement teams can leverage this desire to take an important step for the future.

Supply Chain Strategy Comparison

The Path to Supply Chain Stability

If supply chain restructuring is done correctly, manufacturers can enjoy a more predictable product flow for many years while establishing a solid base for continuous improvement. It requires expertise to conduct a proper assessment, model various options, guide decision-making, and smoothly implement the necessary changes. Once supply variables have been reduced and stability is achieved, companies can focus their energy on waste elimination, such as improving yield rates, maximizing shipping density, and quicker response to potential defects. This allows manufacturers to make internal efficiency gains, supported by a steady flow of incoming parts and materials.

Strategic Re-shoring and Near-shoring

Naturally, a large part of this concept may involve re-shoring, near-shoring, or even insourcing products to support manufacturing. To be truly effective, these strategies must follow a thorough process that guides the selection of the right supplier partners in the best possible locations with total cost optimization in mind. When done properly, the long-term benefits to the business can be tremendous. Essentially, it is an effort to take variables out of the supply chain and to reduce true total cost based on real-world circumstances. From this solid base, companies can collaborate with their chosen suppliers to optimize key metrics, drive efficiency improvement, and ultimately, reduce cost.

A truly optimized supply chain decreases risks, produces predictable costs, and allows companies to focus on proactive efficiency rather than reactive disruption management.

Strategic Exceptions to Consider

Even as shorter supply chains are better, specific products can be exceptions. Entire industries may have left the home country, and even if they return, they may not have the scale to truly compete globally for some time. Companies may purchase labor-intensive products where the benefits of lower labor costs are so large that local manufacturers are not competitive even when tariffs or high shipping costs are added. Once these exceptions are correctly verified based on realistic conditions, inventory levels, order lead times, and other parameters can be adjusted to manage risk. Implementing these contingencies and restructuring the remainder of the supply chain can be the basis for proper optimization.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

Tariffs are the most recent example of how the theoretical merits of a longer supply chain can be erased overnight. They add to an already compelling case for supply chain restructuring, and the current environment provides both urgency and justification for change.

How PLG Consulting Can Help

PLG Consulting has historically used economic conditions — good or challenging — to deliver client value. When times are good, we support growth; when challenged, expert partners help strengthen resiliency, manage costs, and gain competitive leverage. 

Our Supply Chain Services: 

• Supply chain assessment and risk analysis
• Re-shoring and near-shoring strategy development
• Total cost of ownership modeling
• Supplier identification and qualification
• Implementation support and change management
• Continuous improvement facilitation

Contact us today to discuss how we can help optimize your supply chain strategy in the face of global trade uncertainties.

A truly optimized, stable supply chain will produce a more predictable cost structure, decrease supply risks, and allow companies to apply their current resources to overcome supply chain disruptions through proactive efforts to eliminate waste and become more efficient. By approaching tariffs as a catalyst for strategic evolution, companies can emerge more substantial, resilient, and profitable.